Published: April 13, 2008 09:27 am         

Op-Ed: GOP may take state

DETROIT -- Practically speaking, Republicans should have no chance to carry Michigan in the presidential race this November.

But they just might -- thanks to the arrogant and incompetent bumbling of the Michigan Democratic Party, which has effectively disenfranchised its voters, and repeatedly refused to fix the problem.

The Republicans shouldn't have a chance here in November. The state has the highest unemployment rate (7.2 percent) in the nation, and things are expected to get worse.

Once a swing state, Michigan has been trending more and more Democratic, rejecting George W. Bush twice.

U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the now-certain GOP nominee, is not strong on economic issues -- and in Michigan these days, it's all about economic issues.

In the increasingly unlikely event that Sen. Hillary Clinton is the nominee, his chances of winning would be especially great, given the special insensitivity state Democrats -- mainly, National Committeewoman Debbie Dingell, longtime Party Chairman Mark Brewer and Gov. Jennifer Granholm -- have shown this year to black voters.

Thanks to a series of bone-headed decisions by the state party establishment, Michigan will be the only state in the nation where nobody was ever allowed to cast a primary or caucus vote for Barack Obama, now the clear favorite to win the nomination.

If you think that is bad, it gets worse.

As of now, Michigan delegates won't even be seated at the Democratic National Convention at Denver in August. Michigan's irrelevance was again affirmed when the party's latest feeble attempts to have a "do-over" fell apart.

"The Michigan Democratic Party has carefully reviewed several proposals for a party-run primary or caucus as a means of resolving the dispute over the seating of the Michigan delegation," the party's executive committee said in an April 4 statement.

"We have concluded that it is not practical to conduct such a primary or caucus." What does that mean?

Simply this: Michigan Democrats, who early on tried to make themselves big players by holding their primary earlier than allowed, have now given up trying to play a role or be fair to their voters.

What they now hope is that a clear winner will emerge by the end of the primary process in June. The other candidate will then withdraw, and in the love fest that follows, everybody will quietly agree to seat Michigan. That could happen ... but it also might not.

Should the nomination reach the convention without either candidate having a majority, there is no way Michigan will be seated -- especially if Obama still leads in the delegate count.

All this started when U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and Dingell pressured the legislature to move the primary to Jan. 15, breaking national party rules.

Brewer said that the party would never enforce its rules because Michigan was too important a state. (After he said that, the party canceled the delegation's hotel rooms in Denver.)

Bowing to pressure from the national party, none of the Democrats campaigned in the state in January. Most took their names off the ballot -- except for Hillary Clinton, who said it didn't matter, because "Michigan's vote isn't going to count for anything."

Party officials warned voters that if they wrote in Obama's name, their votes wouldn't be counted.

So with little incentive for most Democrats to vote, the turnout was small. In Ohio, which has only slightly more people than Michigan, 2.3 million voted in that state's Democratic primary. But only 594,398 voted in Michigan, in a year when most states have had record turnouts.

Those who did vote split 55 percent for Hillary Clinton, 40 percent uncommitted. Many more Democrats stayed home -- or voted in the GOP primary, where the outcome did count.

When it gradually began to dawn on the Dingells and Brewers that they had a race, and that voters were increasingly angry, they tried to get the state to have another primary.

Meanwhile, as had been widely expected, a federal judge declared the bill establishing the Jan. 15 primary unconstitutional, because it created private fundraising lists for the parties that the general public couldn't see.

One logical solution remained: A privately run "firehouse primary" put on by the party. That's what Michigan Democrats did in 2004.

But instead, they decided not to decide, leaving maybe a million confused, angry and frustrated voters.

And maybe, just maybe, a golden opportunity for John McCain.

Contact Jack Lessenberry at Bucca@aol.com or write to him at 189 Manoogian Hall, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, 48202