DETROIT -- Hillary Clinton's victories in Ohio and Texas last week had another consequence that almost no one realized on election night. They meant Michigan Democrats -- and probably those in Florida, too -- will finally have to swallow their pride ...
And have another election to pick convention delegates.
"I can confirm people are talking about this. We know we screwed it up. We have to do something," one high-ranking party official told me within hours after the latest primary results became clear.
But just admitting talks are under way means Democrats know they have to have a "do-over," probably a primary-style caucus.
If you missed watching the train wreck live, here's a little background: In order to try to get more influence over the process, Michigan Democrats scheduled a primary for Jan. 15 -- even though national party leaders told them that would break the rules.
Your delegates won't count and won't be seated, Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean said. Under pressure from the party, none of the candidates campaigned in Michigan.
All of the leading contenders also pulled their names off the ballot, except for Clinton, who said she left it on because the election was "meaningless." So she got 55 percent in a very small turnout, and 40 percent voted "uncommitted."
Mark Brewer, the Michigan Democratic chair, maintained his delegates would be seated anyway, because "we are an important state." The national party said "No way."
Privately, Democrats figured a nominee would emerge by now and everyone else would drop out. Then the rules would be waived, and Michigan's delegates would be quietly seated in the celebration that followed.
But that didn't happen. Instead, Clinton's victories last week made it virtually certain that if both she and Barack Obama stay in the race neither candidate would reach the needed majority once the primaries and caucuses are over. What's more, Obama is still likely to end up with slightly more delegates than Sen. Clinton.
If that happens, there would be no way the convention would agree to seat either the Michigan or Florida delegations. Obama delegates are never going to agree to seat two delegations that would tip the balance of power against their candidate.
So now active talks are under way that will make a do-over almost inevitable. Though there is talk of another primary, you can forget that. Another primary would cost the state $12 million it doesn't have. What would be most likely would be some form of wide-open caucus, or "firehouse primary," run by the party itself.
Democrats know how to do one of those; it is how they picked their convention delegates in 2000 and 2004. Most likely it would be on a Saturday, possibly as soon as April; maybe as late as June.
Anyone who was willing to say they were a Democrat could vote. Absentee ballots would likely be made available, and people might even be able to vote on the Internet.
Money is a problem. Such a caucus would cost less than a primary, but still a hefty sum, and state political parties are traditionally broke.
Democratic leaders, including U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, who had pushed hard for the disastrous primary, Debbie Dingell, the Democratic National Committeewoman, and United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger, were reportedly negotiating with the national party leadership about what to do and when.
Those talks were certain to include a request for help from the national party in paying for a do-over.
Ironically, the Obama forces initially appeared in disarray, taken by surprise, and less receptive to the idea than the Clinton camp.
State Sen. Tupac Hunter, D-Detroit, chair of the Obama campaign in the state, said he did not know whether a caucus would be a good idea. Christina Montague, the campaign's statewide coordinator, has repeatedly said she was against another election, and that Michigan's delegates just shouldn't count.
Privately, Obama supporters fear that they could not win a Michigan primary. Most of the top Democrats in Michigan are strong Clinton supporters. Obama's backers fear that the dynamics and demographics of the state are too much like Ohio's.
There, Clinton beat him solidly, 54 percent to 44 percent, with the help of GOP crossover voters for Clinton, whom Republicans believe would be easier to defeat.
Traditionally, the Illinois senator has done much better in caucuses, which draw fewer but more committed voters. (As in Texas, where he narrowly lost the primary but easily won a caucus held the same day.)
What is clear is that this is the most fascinating and most closely contested Democratic presidential contest in history.
Trying to choose a nominee while shutting out Michigan and Florida would be somewhere between ridiculous and suicidal.
All of which means a Michigan "do-over" of some kind is now virtually inevitable. As inevitable, that is, as anything can be in a year when the dynamics of the race can change completely from week to week, and where the politically impossible has become routine.
Contact Jack Lessenberry at Bucca@aol.com or write to him at 189 Manoogian Hall, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, 48202.
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