Woe be to those 2008 Democratic contenders who boycott Michigan's Jan. 15 presidential primary. Those who don't contend in January should suffer in November.
"I will make a big deal of that fact," ex-Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts said Saturday when I asked how much of an issue he would make of the snub if he is the GOP nominee. "The fact is, this is a critical state. In my opinion...if I'm the nominee, this becomes ground zero for a successful presidential campaign." The Michigan-born contender, son of the late Gov. George Romney, said: "Michigan is a purple state. It was blue the last two elections, so I will call it a purple state. Pretty close. And it's a state I believe I can win. And the Democrats walking away from Michigan I think is just one more reason why Michiganders will support my candidacy.
"Recognize that Michigan is personal for me. ... Michigan is not a state I would walk away from, politically or otherwise." The candidates are walking away from Michigan because it, like Florida, ignores the early-states voting authorized by the Democratic National Committee: Iowa Jan. 14, Nevada Jan. 19, New Hampshire Jan. 22, South Carolina Jan. 29.
Conventional wisdom, underscored by President George W. Bush's campaigns in 2000 and 2004, is that Republicans can win the White House without winning Michigan. Not so for Democrats.
"Democrats cannot win the nomination without Michigan," pollster Ed Sarpolus of Lansing-based EPIC/MRA said of the "very stupid" snub.
All the 2008 Democratic contenders, bowing to the stranglehold that Iowa and New Hampshire have had on the nomination process, refuse to campaign in Michigan--with four of them taking the extreme step of removing their names from our Jan. 15 primary.
I agree with Republican State Chairman Saul Anuzis that the boycott is "a monumental political blunder," and with Democratic Sen. Carl Levin that Michigan could win in a convention floor fight about its violation of national party rules banning most states from holding 2008 contests before Feb. 5.
Fortunately, as this week began, there was prospect of a sensible solution, thanks to prodding by Levin and Democratic State Chairman Mark Brewer.
Levin, in a Friday visit with the Detroit Free Press editorial board, outlined steps that could be taken if the Jan. 15 primary ends up being merely a "beauty contest" for the four candidates who decided to stay in the race.
Levin, who for three election cycles has pressed to break the two-state monopoly, said the Michigan Democratic Party could after Jan. 15 hold a caucus to determine how the state's delegates are allocated among all candidates.
"I want to keep the option open of Michigan moving its caucus after seeing what New Hampshire does," Levin said. "My priority is to end the hammer lock that New Hampshire has on this process." As of this writing, leaders of both parties in Lansing were considering legislation to put names of the four boycotters back on the ballot -- Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, ex-Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico.
Looking at their potential constituencies in Michigan, it's particularly hard to figure why Edwards would stiff a state where he could get substantial labor support. And why Obama would ignore potential in state where blacks are 14.1 percent of the population (1.1 percent in New Hampshire and 2.3 percent in Iowa).
Gov. Jennifer Granholm has been consulting with Brewer, House Speaker Andy Dillon and others on options for getting names of all Democratic contenders before Michigan voters. It also appeared likely that she would endorse New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who wisely opted to keep her name on the Michigan ballot.
Clinton already has the gung-ho active support of ex-Gov. Jim Blanchard, who mobilized a recent Oakland County fund-raiser that netted her more than $400,000.
While presidential candidates, under national party rules that pander to the small state Iowa/New Hampshire power center, are not supposed to campaign in big ole nasty Michigan, they can have fund-raisers here. Non-campaign campaigning, says Blanchard.
Regardless of how this sorts out, Democrats undoubtedly will rally to their nominee in November. But one voter, Nancy Kenny of Lake Leelanau, called it a "pretty insulting" snub that could be "hurtful" to the ticket in November.
Meanwhile, Republican contenders have been frequent fliers to Michigan. They attended last month's GOP conference on Mackinac Island, and last week's debate in Dearborn.
After the debate, Romney campaigned in Royal Oak, Traverse City and Grand Rapids.
In Traverse City, Romney announced the endorsement of local state Senate Majority Whip Jason Allen, saying Allen "understands the importance of having a strong and vibrant economy." An echo from Allen: "Governor Romney understands the importance of having a strong economy." Also in Traverse City, Romney met with ex-Gov. Bill Milliken, who served as lieutenant governor with George Romney and became governor in 1969 when Romney joined the Nixon cabinet as secretary of housing and urban development.
The Mitt Romney pitch these days is well to the right of the George Romney pitch of the 1960s, and even further to the right of Milliken's moderate politics. Milliken, who is a past fan of Arizona Sen. John McCain, has not endorsed in the 2008 Republican field.
He said of the meeting with Romney: "We had a very good, friendly and open exchange. We recalled many stories about his father. I was glad to have seen him."
George Weeks retired last year after 22 years as political columnist for The Detroit News. His weekly Michigan Politics column is syndicated by Superior Features.
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