On the eve of the weekend gathering of seven 2008 Republican presidential contenders on Mackinac Island, Arizona Sen. John McCain's campaign cited four national polls in asserting "we are making large gains." He indeed made some gains.
But the two latest statewide Michigan polls put the decorated Navy pilot and Vietnam POW in a tailspin in the state where he beat George W. Bush in the 2000 primary.
While he can pull out of it, McCain came to Michigan as a wounded warrior because of his fundraising and organizational problems, including the devastating blow of Attorney General Mike Cox quitting as his Michigan chairman.
The Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, in releasing its Sept. 13-19 survey of 600 likely Michigan Republican voters, said Thursday the Arizona senator had "collapsed," falling to six points from 24 points in its April poll. Ex-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was at 27, and ex-Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 13.
The next day, Mitchell Interactive, an East Lansing online polling firm, released these results of a Sept. 14-19 survey of 441 likely primary voters: Romney, 21; Giuliani, 19; Thompson, 18; McCain 10. Both polls had all other contenders in single digits.
Polls, as ex-Gov Jim Blanchard used to say, "are like yo-yos," not crystal balls. Snapshots -- not forecasts.
But, like it or not, they impact what the first President Bush called "the Big Mo," and therefore fund-raising, endorsements and recruiting of grassroots activists.
Pollster Ed Sarpolus of Lansing-based EPIC/MRA, who in August had McCain trailing the same top three of the September polls, said Friday: "McCain has more than collapsed. He barely has a heart beat. His life is hanging by a thread."
U.S. Rep. Candice Miller of Macomb County, who chairs Giuliani's Michigan campaign, contends McCain's campaign "is sort of imploding in Michigan." Michigan Democratic Chairman Mark Brewer, in a press release that posed awkward questions for all White House hopefuls on Mackinac, asked McCain, in the wake of Cox's defection, "who's left" among his Michigan supporters.
As announced by McCain last week, his Michigan co-chairs are U.S. Rep. Fred Upton of St. Joseph, Republican National Committeeman Chuck Yob and Republican National Committeewoman Holly Hughes. His vice-chairs include Sen. Michelle McManus of Lake Leelanau and Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer of Kewadin.
I focus on McCain among the Mackinac attendees because he won the last GOP contested primary here in 2000; was the early 2008 frontrunner across the land; has now been written off by some national commentators; and abandoned by Cox, Michigan's most politically aggressive Republican elected official.
Blanchard and former President Bill Clinton, upon rebounding in campaigns, each called himself "the Comeback Kid." Will the "collapsed/imploded" McCain, 71, be the presidential primary's Comeback Geezer? (It's his own term. McCain, when I once joined him in the back seat of a campaign limo, welcomed "a fellow geezer.")
Why did Cox defect? In his own convoluted words: "Senator John McCain has been and will always remain a personal hero. In fact, as a young Marine in Okinawa, I followed his first election campaign in 1982. He is one of the most important American figures of our time. However, as you know, I disagree with him on the direction of his presidential campaign. I still believe, if elected, that Senator McCain would make a great President. However, after long thought and consideration, I can no longer endorse his candidacy and I am withdrawing as his Michigan State Chairman."
George Weeks retired last year after 22 years as political columnist for The Detroit News. His weekly Michigan Politics column is syndicated by Superior Features.
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