I'm not a betting man, but if I did decide to place a wager or two I might be tempted to test a trend in college football.
Teams coming off crushing losses struggle -- emotionally -- the following week.
Remember when Michigan State blew that big fourth-quarter lead to Notre Dame a year ago? The Spartans played an uninspired game at home the following week, losing to Illinois, a team it beat by 47 points the previous year.
How about Michigan's stunning loss to Appalachian State in the season opener? The following week the Wolverines looked listless in a blowout loss at The Big House to Oregon. The Ducks are a terrific football team with a mobile quarterback, but Michigan played flat that afternoon.
Cal has not been the same team since a last-second gaffe by quarterback Kevin Riley cost the Bears a shot at beating Oregon State in Berkley. A week later, Cal lost at UCLA, a team that's dropped home games to Utah (44-6) and 1-7 Notre Dame.
Louisville, with Heisman hopeful Brian Brohm at the controls, was riding high, averaging 65.5 points after its first two games. The Cardinals were on their way to win No. 3 when Kentucky's Andre Woodson heaved a 57-yard touchdown pass to Steve Johnson with 28 seconds left to stun Louisville, 40-34. The Cardinals followed that with an inexplicable loss at home to Syracuse, one of the weakest teams in Division 1.
Cincinnati was becoming the Cinderella team of the season when it lost at home to a Louisville team that had hit the skids. A week later, the Bearcats were upset by Pittsburgh.
I don't know if that trend translates to the NFL, but if it does then it bodes well for the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
The Lions host the Denver Broncos, who let a victory over Green Bay slip away Monday night. The Broncos drove to the Packers 4-yard line in the closing seconds. Victory was tantalizingly close. But Denver could not convert and had to settle for a Jason Elam field goal as time ran out, sending the game to overtime. You had the feeling that Denver's inability to punch it in would come back to haunt the Broncos. Sure enough, Green Bay's Brett Favre needed just one play in overtime -- an 82-yard bomb to Greg Jennings -- to end it, deflating the Broncos and their fans.
So, I'll be interested to see how Denver responds Sunday.
In college football, one loss -- like Michigan's to Appalachian State or Cal's to Oregon State -- can be devastating in terms of playing for a national championship. In the NFL, one loss does not matter. As long as you make the playoffs -- and sometimes you can do that with a 9-7 record -- you have a chance to win it all. There is not the pressure on the players to win every game, to be perfect every week. In that regard, it's easier to put a loss behind you.
I don't know how the Broncos will play Sunday.
But if they were a college team I might.
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